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| The U.S. Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) fires a missile into the East Sea during a South Korea-U.S. joint missile drill aimed to counter North Korea's ICBM test on July 29, 2017. |
Nuclear Attacks
How to Survive a Nuclear Attack
BY JOHN PERRITANO
If
there's anything author Daniel Judson has learned by watching apocalyptic
movies such as "Road Warrior" it's this: Always be prepared.
That's
why the writer of suspense novels has created a prepper's paradise of
stockpiled water, food, gasoline, medication and other necessities in his
Connecticut home.
Judson
is not waiting for the four horsemen to arrive, mind you. It's just that he
doesn't want to be caught flat-footed if a hurricane blows through - or if
missiles start flying between the United States and North Korea.
The
saber-rattling between both nations in August 2017 has Judson and millions of
others on edge. If the unthinkable were to happen, being prepared might not be
good enough.
"There
is a saying in the prepper community: We are only three days from anarchy," Judson says in an email.
"Recent
events, though, have shown us that the estimate of three days might be a little
optimistic. Protecting oneself from a natural disaster like a hurricane is one
thing, but radiation, in both the short- and long-term, is a different
story."
The
specter of a nuclear exchange between North Korea and the United States
reached critical mass on Jan. 2, 2018, after President Donald Trump tweeted his
"nuclear button" was much bigger and more powerful than Kim Jong
Un's.
This
came after Trump and Kim's Aug. 7, 2017 back-and-forth that ended in Trump
threatening "fire and fury like the world has never seen before."
After that remark, the number of Goggle searches for
"how to survive a nuclear
attack" spiked.
That's
not to say that a nuclear exchange is likely, but in general, if
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) start falling, and you live
with about a 0.5-mile (0.8-kilometer) radius of a direct hit (Kim has
threatened Guam and Hawaii) you can kiss yourself goodbye.
But,
if you want to live, your best chance is to get away from the blast area as
fast as possible and burrow yourself so deeply that the resulting radioactive
fallout won't kill you, or at the very least, make you sick.
Survivability Zones
"The
direct effects will be survivable beyond a few miles except for the fallout
plume, which could extend farther depending on wind, rain and the detonation
yield," Dr. Michael May, an expert on
nuclear arms at Stanford University says in an email interview.
There
are three different damage zones that form during a nuclear blast, says Brooke
Buddemeier, a health physicist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in
California, in an email.
Using
a 10-kiloton nuclear blast, which is about the size of the bombs the United
States dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II, as an example,
the deadliest of these zones, the severe
damage zone, will extend outward in a 0.5-mile (0.8-kilometer) radius from
ground zero. In this zone, most buildings will be destroyed, and chances for
survival are minimal.
The moderate damage zone extends from
radius of 0.5 mile (0.8 kilometer) to 1 mile (1.6 kilometers). In this zone,
buildings will experience major damage. For humans, early medical attention can
significantly reduce the number of casualties.
The light damage zone extends in a 1- to
3-mile (1.6- to 4.8-kilometer) radius. A person's chances for surviving a blast
in this zone are very high, especially if they are in a shelter (more on those
in a minute). "Most injuries in the
light damage zone are relatively minor, and most people in this area would be
uninjured," Buddemeier says.
In
2007, the Preventative Defense Project at both Harvard and Stanford
universities, held a workshop on what would happen during and after a nuclear
blast.
May, along with Ashton Carter and Dr. William J.
Perry, both of whom served as U.S. secretaries of defense, summarized the
workshop's findings in a report titled “The
Day After: Action in the 24 Hours Following a Nuclear Blast in an American
City.”
The
portrait they paint is bleak. The group looked at what would happen if a
10-kiloton uranium bomb detonated in a major U.S. city without advance warning.
A
ground burst would obliterate a city's downtown, while just outside that area,
people wounded by fire, flying debris and intense radiation would more
than likely die.
A
"plume of radioactive debris" would spread over a wide area,
depending on wind and weather conditions.
"Those
people who were relatively close to the detonation point, or who did not
shelter themselves from the radiation (which would be most intense on the Day
After and then subside with time) would receive large but varying doses of
radiation," May and his co-authors write.
"If
the dose was intense (more than 400 rems), they would get sick and die; if
strong but moderate (50 to 400 rems), they would get sick but probably recover;
if moderate (below 50 rems), they would not notice the effect immediately but
would have a greater chance of contracting cancer over their lifetime than if
they had received no dose."
Most
people within the blast area wouldn't survive, the report states. The majority of
buildings would be destroyed or severely damaged.
Things
don't get much better away from the blast. About 5 miles (8 kilometers) out,
people could be bombarded with fatal doses of radiation on the first day
(depending on the prevailing winds) if they were not in a shelter.
"Within
the first mile or so, little can be done," May says.
"Beyond
that, protective structures will help. How much depends on the structure. The
chances of survival increase with distance. Chances depend on the yield and
altitude of the detonation and other details such as whether the location is
shielded by hills, etc."
Shelter in Place
Just how far you need to be from
ground zero to survive a nuclear blast depends on many variables, such as the
power generated by the blast, weather conditions and geological features, among
other things.
Yet, one thing is for certain: Buildings can, and do,
shield people from radiation. "Beyond
the immediate destruction and fire zone, sheltering in place is recommended
both for fallout protection and to keep roads clear for responders,"
May says.
"It's
going to be very hard for parents, but if your kids are in school beyond the
destruction and fire zone, don't go pick them up right away!"
"Any
structure can help reduce your exposure to fallout radiation," adds Livermore's Buddemeier. "Though, if you have a few minutes to get into a more robust
structure, that would provide more protection and further reduce your
exposure."
Buddemeier
also says that while a bit of ionizing radiation can penetrate buildings, the
walls of most common urban buildings can reduce exposures by a factor of 10 or
more.
He
says an adequate shelter could be a basement, particularly against a wall;
multistory brick or concrete structures; office buildings (central core or
underground sections); multistory shopping malls (away from the roof or
periphery); and tunnels, subways and other underground areas.
FEMA
Guidelines
The U.S. Federal
Emergency Management Agency recommends, if possible, finding an
underground shelter "such as a home or office building basement."
In
short, the more concrete, bricks, books and earth that you can put between
yourself and radioactive fallout, the better your survivability rate.
In
addition, FEMA says if a nuke detonates:
·
Don't look at the flash of light. You'll go
blind.
·
"Duck and cover" behind anything that
can protect you.
·
Find the nearest building, preferably made of
brick or concrete, as fast as you can.
·
Get as far underground as possible, or at the
very least, in the center of a building.
·
Keep as much of your skin covered as possible.
Radioactive particles are tiny. The less that gets on your skin the better.
·
If your clothes become contaminated, remove them
and take a shower with soap and water as soon as possible. Showers will wash
the radioactive particles away. Do not use hair conditioner, because
radioactive particles bind to it.
·
Stay hunkered down in a shelter for a minimum of
48 to 72 hours.
Hawaii's Emergency
Management Agency issued a bone-chilling set of guidelines in the event
North Korea targets the state.
Among other things, the agency called on
residents to heed warning sirens. "If
you're indoors stay indoors well away from the windows," the
guidelines read.
"If
you are outdoors, seek immediate shelter in a building, preferably a concrete
structure ... DO NOT look at the flash of light."
Still, despite the
horrific nature of a nuclear detonation, Hawaii's Emergency Management Agency
assumes that tens of thousands, based on the size of a North Korean nuclear
weapon, will survive.
"Survival
is very likely,"
the agency's Toby Clairmont said in an email interview. "We estimate that over 90 percent of the people on Oahu would
survive a 15-kiloton weapon detonated in the urban Honolulu area. Those who
survive will need to shelter for up to 14 days to avoid exposure to radioactive
fallout."
Or, if you're like
Dan Judson, create your own prepper's cave.
"Most
people have nowhere to run, so sheltering in place is the only option," he says.
"A
house is relatively easy to fortify — plywood is surprisingly strong, and
instructions can be found online. A basement, if you have one, is a good
Alamo, though I really wouldn't want to live in ours for a long period of
time. Also, a basement hideout can quickly become a trap. Remember,
everyone at the Alamo died."
NOW THAT'S SAD!
More than 70 years
after the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the
number of dead remains a mystery.
Children of the Atomic Bomb, a research
project developed by UCLA professor emeritus Dr. James N. Yamazaki and the UCLA
Asian American Studies Center, estimates the number of wounded and killed,
150,000 (Hiroshima) and 75,000 (Nagasaki), is conservative.
At least 66,000 people in Hiroshima
died instantly, and at least 30,000 in Nagasaki.
More than 226,000 survived the blasts,
although many suffered the ill effects of radiation.
John Perritano
John Perritano is an
award-winning journalist and author, and regular contributor to HowStuffWorks.
He likes writing about science,
history, sports and anything else that helps pay the mortgage. You might have
noticed that he often mentions his favorite family members — his dogs — in his
articles.
John holds a master’s degree in
U.S. History from Western Connecticut State University, and has worked for many
publishers including Time-Life, National Geographic, Scholastic and others.
He lives in Southbury,
Connecticut, on “Big Dog Farm.” It’s a real place. Honest. It even has a sign.
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