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Murphy's Law
How Murphy's Law Works
BY JOSH CLARK
You're sitting in
eight lanes of bumper-to-bumper traffic. You're more than ready to get home,
but you notice, to your great dismay, that all of the other lanes seem to be
moving. You change lanes. But once you do, the cars in your new lane come
to a dead halt. At a standstill, you notice every lane on the highway
(including the one you just left) is moving -- except yours.
Welcome
to the aggravating world of Murphy's Law. This idiom says
that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. And it may just be right. This isn't
because of some mysterious power the law possesses. In reality, it's us who
give Murphy's Law relevance. When life goes well, little is made of it. After
all, we expect that things should work out in our favor. But when things go
badly, we look for reasons.
Think
about walking. How many times have you reached a destination and thought,
"Wow, I walk really well"? But when you trip over a curb and skin
your knee, it's a pretty good bet you'll wonder why this had to happen to you.
Murphy's
Law taps into our tendency to dwell on the negative and overlook the positive.
It seems to poke fun at us for being such hotheads, and it uses the rules of probability -- the mathematical likeliness
that something will occur -- to support itself.
The
law captures our imagination. Murphy's Law and its offshoots have been
collected in books and Web sites. Several bands are named after Murphy's Law,
and it's also a popular name for Irish pubs and taverns around the world.
It was also used as the title of an action movie.
But
Murphy's Law is a relatively new concept, dating back to the middle of the last
century. Magician Adam Hull Shirk wrote in the 1928 essay, "On Getting Out
of Things," that in a magic act, nine out of 10 things that can go wrong
usually will [source: American Dialect
Society].
Even
before this, it was called Sod's Law, which states that any bad thing that can
happen to some poor sod will. In fact, Murphy's Law is still referred to as
Sod's Law in England [source: Murphy's Laws].
In
this article, we'll explore Murphy's Law, its consequences and the impact it's
had on our world. In the next section, we'll look at the story behind Murphy's
Law.
Who was Captain Edward A. Murphy Jr.?
Believe
it or not, there really was a Murphy, and he lived in the United States until
his death in 1990. Captain Edward A. Murphy Jr. was an engineer in the Air
Force. Although he took part in other engineering design tests throughout both
his military and civilian careers, it was one test that he attended -- almost
as a fluke -- that gave rise to Murphy's Law.
In
1949, at Edwards Air Force Base in California, officers were conducting project
MX981 tests to determine once and for all how many Gs --
the force of gravity -- a human being could withstand. They hoped that
their findings could be applied to future airplane designs.
The
project team used a rocket sled dubbed the "Gee Whiz" to
simulate the force of an airplane crash. The sled traveled more than 200 miles
per hour down a half-mile track, coming to an abrupt stop in less than a
second. The problem was that, in order to find out just how much force a person
could take, the team needed an actual person to experience it. Enter Colonel
John Paul Stapp. Stapp was a career physician for the Air Force, and he
volunteered to ride the rocket sled. Over the course of several months, Stapp
took ride after physically grueling ride. He was subjected to broken bones,
concussions and broken blood vessels in his eyes, all in the name of
science [source: Spark].
Murphy
attended one of the tests, bearing a gift: a set of sensors that could be
applied to the harness that held Dr. Stapp to the rocket sled. These sensors
were capable of measuring the exact amount of G-force applied when the rocket
sled came to a sudden stop, making the data more reliable.
There
are several stories about what happened that day, and about who exactly
contributed what to the creation of Murphy's Law, but what follows is a good
approximation of what happened.
The
first test after Murphy hooked up his sensors to the harness produced a reading
of zero -- all of the sensors had been connected incorrectly. For each sensor,
there were two ways of connecting them, and each one was installed the wrong
way.
When
Murphy discovered the mistake, he grumbled something about the technician, who
was allegedly blamed for the foul-up. Murphy said something along the lines of,
"If there are two ways to do something, and one of those ways will result
in disaster, he'll do it that way" [source: Improbable Research].
Shortly
thereafter, Murphy headed back to Wright Airfield where he was stationed. But
Stapp, a man who was known for his sense of humor and quick wit, recognized the
universality of what Murphy had said, and in a press conference he mentioned
that the rocket sled team's good safety record had been due to its awareness of
Murphy's Law. He told the press that it meant "Whatever can go wrong, will
go wrong" [source: The Jargon File].
That
was all it took. Murphy's Law turned up in aerospace publications and shortly
thereafter made its way into popular culture, including being made into a book
in the 1970s.
Since
then, the law has been added to and expanded upon. In the next section, we'll
look at some of Murphy's Laws interpretations and consequences.
Other Universal Truths
Although
Murphy's Law captures the jaded, pessimistic view of the world very well, it
doesn't stand alone. Since its popularization following the rocket sled
tests at Edwards Air Base Base, shrewd observers have come up with some of
their own laws.
Some
have become famous in their own right, like the Peter Principle, which states
that all people will eventually be promoted to their level of incompetence, or
O'Toole's Commentary on Murphy's Law, which argues that Murphy was an optimist.
There are literally thousands of rules, laws, principles and observations that
have been created since Murphy's Law. Some are funny, some are wise and some
are just plain cool. Others are old, tried-and-true observations:
· Etorre's
Observation - The other line moves faster.
· Barth's
Distinction - There are two types of people in the world:
those who divide people into types and those who don't.
· Acton's Law - Power
corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely
· Boob's Law - You
always find something in the last place you look.
· Clarke's Third
Law - Any sufficiently advanced society is indistinguishable
from magic.
· Franklin's Rule - Blessed
is he who expects nothing, for he will not be disappointed.
· Issawi's Law of
the Path of Progress - A shortcut is the longest distance between two
points.
· Mencken's Law - Those
who can, do. Those who cannot, teach.
· Patton's Law - A
good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow.
Each
of these sayings explains some aspect of the universe and puts it into an
easily understood (and often funny) form. Even so, Murphy's Law remains the
granddaddy of all maxims. What is it about this law that we find so perfectly
captures life? In the next section, we'll look at why Murphy's Law is such a universal
concept.
Fatalism and the Appeal of Murphy's Law
So
why is Murphy's Law such a sound universal concept? After all, when approaching
an electrical socket with a two-pronged plug engineered to only fit one
way, we have a 50-percent chance of getting it right. Then again, we have a
50-percent chance of getting it wrong, too. Perhaps the best explanation for
our attraction to Murphy's Law is an underlying sense of fatalism.
Fatalism is
the idea that we're all powerless to the whims of fate. This notion says that
the things that happen to us are unavoidable, for example, that skinned knee.
It's the idea that there's some kind of universal law at work that takes a
certain glee at toying with us.
Fatalism
contradicts another concept -- free will. This is the idea that humans possess
free will and that all of our choices, along with the consequences that come
with those choices, are our own.
Perhaps
our connection to Murphy's Law is the result of the collision between free will
and fatalism. On the one hand, Murphy's Law reveals to us our own undeniable
stupidity. If given a chance to do something wrong, we'll do so around half of
the time. But that comes from our own choices. On the other hand, Murphy's Law
also reveals to us our lack of control, as in the case of always seeming to be
stuck in the slowest lane of traffic.
Murphy's
Law doesn't prove anything. It doesn't even explain anything. It simply states
a maxim: that things will go wrong. But we forget that there are other forces
at work when we consider Murphy's Law. Allegedly, It was the author Rudyard
Kipling who said that no matter how many times you drop a slice of bread, it
always seems to land on the floor butter-side down. Kipling, the author of
"The Jungle Book," among others, was making an observation that most
of us can relate to: Life is hard, almost to a laughable degree.
But
with a buttered slice of bread, you must take into account the fact that one
side is heavier than another. This means that on the way to the ground, the
heavy side will flip toward the ground thanks to gravity, but it will not flip
all the way around back to the top for the same reason. It is, after all,
heavier than the side without the butter. So Kipling was right -- a piece of
buttered bread will always land butter-side down.
In
the next section, we'll look at Murphy's Law in math and science, and how the
law can make the things we create safer and more reliable.
MURPHY'S
LAW AND THE LAW OF ENTROPY
Murphy's Law is actually supported by an accepted
natural law: entropy. This law is used most often in the study of
thermodynamics -- how energy changes from one form to another -- and says
that, in our universe, systems tend to end up in disorder and disarray.
Entropy, also called the second law of
thermodynamics, supports Murphy's Law's claim that whatever can go wrong,
will.
Preventing Murphy's Law
While
most of us appreciate Murphy's Law for its ability to explain our sense of
helplessness during certain events, others see it as a tool. At least one
person sees it as a mathematical equation that can predict the chances of
processes going awry. Joel Pel, a biological engineer at the University of
British Columbia created a formula that predicts the occurrence of
Murphy's Law.
The
formula uses a constant equal to one, a factor that is unconstant, and a few
variables. In this formula, Pel uses the importance of the event (I), the complexity
of the system involved (C), the urgency of the need for the system to work (U)
and the frequency the system is used (F).
In
an essay he wrote for Science Creative Quarterly, Pel uses the example of
predicting the occurrence of Murphy's Law when a driver needs to drive his
Toyota Tercel a distance of about 60 miles to his home in a rainstorm without
the clutch going out. Using Murphy's Equation, Pel comes up with an answer
of 1, meaning the clutch on the Tercel will definitely go out in a rainstorm.
While anyone familiar with a Tercel might've seen that coming, it's somehow
comforting to know that it can also be predicted mathematically [source: Science Creative
Quarterly].
Murphy's
Law reminds engineers, computer programmers and scientists of a simple
truth: systems fail. In some cases, a system's failure means that the
experiment must be repeated. In other cases, the results of a failure can be
much more costly.
NASA has
learned this over and over again. The space agency has had numerous failures,
and although the number is proportionately small to its successes, the failures
are often very costly. Ironically, in the case of one unmanned orbiting vessel,
a set of sensors had two ways of being connected and -- just as with Murphy's
original Gee Whiz test-- the sensors were all connected incorrectly. When the
sensors failed to operate the way they were designed, the parachutes that were
meant to slow the spacecraft down didn't open, and the orbiter crashed into the
desert [source: MSNBC].
It's
an instance like this, in conjunction with an awareness of Murphy's Law that
has caused designers to install fail-safes.
There are examples of fail-safes all around us. Some are systems that use
limited choices to reduce errors, like the mismatched prong sizes on an
electrical plug. Others are mechanisms that prevent matters from going from bad
to worse, like lawnmowers that have levers that must be held down in order for
the mower to operate. If the person operating the mower lets go of the lever,
the lawnmower stops running.
Fail-safes
are also referred to as "idiot-proof." But Murphy's Law still has a
tendency to strike, even when care has been taken to ensure against failure or
catastrophe. This leads us to the last law we'll relate to Murphy's: Grave's
Law, which states, "If you make something idiot-proof, the world will
create a better idiot."
About Josh Clark
Josh Clark has wanted to be a professional
writer since his third-grade teacher told him a short story he wrote was kind
of good. He's written ever since. At HowStuffWorks.com, he's a senior writer
and co-host of the Stuff You Should Know podcast. Josh lives with his wife,
Umi. The pair really, really enjoys traveling, solving mysteries, having pizza
parties and visiting museums (both renowned and obscure). Josh has been to the
real-life house that served as the Robin's Nest on "Magnum, P.I." and
is on an indefinite hiatus from being a jerk.
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